TL;DR — All 6 AI models predict a draw in this La Liga relegation six-pointer between Alaves (18th, 33 pts) and Mallorca (15th, 35 pts). The consensus scoreline is 1-1 at 75% confidence from ScoreGPT, with every single model landing on the same result. With just two points separating the sides and both desperate to avoid defeat, the data overwhelmingly points to a share of the spoils at the Mendizorrotza.
Match Overview
- Competition: La Liga (Primera) — Matchday 33
- Date: Saturday, April 25, 2026
- Kickoff: 12:00 UTC
- Venue: Estadio Mendizorrotza, Vitoria-Gasteiz
- Stakes: Alaves sit 18th on 33 points, one point above the relegation zone. Mallorca are 15th on 35 points. This is a genuine six-pointer with only six matches remaining.
What 6 AI Models Predict
| Model | Result | Score | Confidence | |-------|--------|-------|------------| | ScoreGPT (Consensus) | Draw | 1-1 | 75% | | GPT-5.4 | Draw | 1-1 | 48% | | Claude Opus 4.6 | Draw | 1-1 | 52% | | Gemini 3.1 Pro | Draw | 1-1 | 65% | | Grok 4.20 | Draw | 1-1 | 31% | | Kimi K2.5 | Draw | 1-1 | 48% |
Unanimity alert: All six models converge on the exact same result (draw) and the exact same scoreline (1-1). This level of agreement is rare and significant.
Consensus Analysis
The AI models are in rare full agreement — and here's why. The structural forces pulling this match toward a draw are overwhelming.
The home/away paradox. Alaves have won just 1 of their last 7 home league games and have drawn 3 of their last 5 at Mendizorrotza. Their home draw rate sits at 40% (6 draws in 15 home matches). Meanwhile, Mallorca's away record is catastrophic: just 1 away win all season and an astonishing 4 consecutive 0-0 draws on the road. As Claude Opus 4.6 notes: "Mallorca cannot win away, but under Demichelis, they've become harder to beat."
Relegation psychology. Both managers — Quique Sánchez Flores (Alaves) and Martín Demichelis (Mallorca) — would accept a point before kick-off. Neither side can afford to lose, and that mutual fear typically suppresses attacking ambition. Kimi K2.5 calls this "a three-way coin flip with the draw offering the best risk-adjusted return."
Head-to-head history. The pattern is undeniable: 68% of all-time meetings have gone under 2.5 goals, and 3 of the last 5 ended in draws. The reverse fixture this season finished Mallorca 1-0 Alaves, but that was at Son Moix.
Mallorca's injury crisis is a double-edged sword. Mallorca are missing up to 8 players, including key attackers Pablo Torre and Abdón Prats. This forces them into a defensive shell — parking the bus to protect a point rather than pushing for a win. Vedat Muriqi (21 goals this season) remains their lone attacking outlet.
The only real division among models is on goals. Grok 4.20 leans Under 2.5 at 1.65 odds, citing the H2H trend and defensive mindsets. GPT-5.4 backs Over 2.5 at 2.20, pointing to Alaves averaging 4.4 goals per game in recent fixtures. Gemini 3.1 Pro favors BTTS-Yes at 1.88, noting that 11 of Alaves' 15 home games have seen both teams score. This split on goals makes the 1-1 draw the cleanest convergence point.
Value Detection
The bet365 market prices this match at: Home 2.15 | Draw 3.00 | Away 3.80. The draw carries an implied probability of ~33.3%, while the AI consensus draw probability sits at approximately 33-34%. This difference is under the 10% threshold, meaning no significant value is detected for the draw as a standalone bet. However, Claude Opus 4.6 saw the draw at 3.20 odds in its analysis (+8.8% edge), suggesting some variance exists across bookmakers — it's worth checking multiple outlets.
On the goals front, Grok 4.20 identifies a potential edge on Under 2.5 (63-65% AI probability vs ~58-60% market implied), while GPT-5.4 sees a moderate edge on Over 2.5 (51% AI vs ~45% implied at 2.20). With models split on goals, the most reliable signal remains the result itself.
No significant value detected for this fixture on the consensus draw market, though individual bookmaker shops may offer slightly better draw prices than the 3.00 available at bet365.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: Who is predicted to win Alaves vs Mallorca? All 6 AI models — including GPT-5.4, Claude Opus 4.6, Gemini 3.1 Pro, Grok 4.20, Kimi K2.5, and the ScoreGPT consensus — predict a draw. The consensus scoreline is 1-1, with ScoreGPT rating confidence at 75%. This is a rare unanimous prediction across independent models.
Q: How accurate are ScoreGPT's predictions? Over the last 30 days, the ScoreGPT consensus model has achieved a 44.6% result accuracy across 168 predictions, with a bet win rate of 44.6% and a +2.3% ROI. Among individual models, Grok 4.20 leads with the best 30-day stats: 48.4% result accuracy, 49.7% bet win rate, and an impressive +15.1% ROI. GPT-5.4 has the highest bet win rate at 53.1% with a +9.6% ROI.
Q: What are the odds for Alaves vs Mallorca? According to bet365: Alaves win at 2.15, Draw at 3.00, Mallorca win at 3.80. The correct score market prices 1-1 at 5.50 as the most likely scoreline. Both Teams to Score (Yes) is priced at 1.80, while (No) is at 1.95. Under 2.5 goals is the market favorite on the goals front.
Disclaimer
Predictions by ScoreGPT using 6 independent AI models. For informational and entertainment purposes only. Download ScoreGPT free on iOS.