Bologna vs As Roma AI Prediction — Serie A, April 25 2026

TL;DR

ScoreGPT consensus predicts a 1-1 draw between Bologna and Roma at the Stadio Dall'Ara. Four of six AI models back Bologna to avoid defeat (draw or home win), while the market has installed Roma as slight favorites — a pricing error driven by reputation rather than current form. Roma are winless in 7 away matches and missing their entire attacking spine (Dybala, Dovbyk, Pellegrini, Koné). The home win or draw double chance at 1.57 offers the clearest value.

Match Overview

This is a Serie A Matchday 34 fixture at the Stadio Renato Dall'Ara in Bologna, kicking off at 16:00 UTC on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Bologna (8th, 48 points) are playing out the season after Europa League elimination and a Coppa Italia exit, while Roma (6th, 58 points) are chasing Champions League qualification — sitting 5 points behind 4th-placed Juventus with 5 games remaining. The motivation gap is clear, but the form and personnel gap tells a different story.

What 6 AI Models Predict

| Model | Result | Score | Confidence | |-------|--------|-------|------------| | ScoreGPT (consensus) | Draw | 1-1 | 55% | | Kimi K2.5 | Draw | 1-1 | 52% | | Grok 4.20 | Draw | 1-1 | 53% | | Gemini 3.1 Pro | Home Win | 1-0 | 48% | | GPT-5.4 | Home Win | 1-0 | 52% | | Claude Opus 4.6 | Away Win | 0-1 | 47% |

Model agreement breakdown: 4/6 models back Bologna to avoid defeat, with 3 landing on a scoreless first half that opens into a 1-1 draw. Only Claude Opus 4.6 predicts an away win, and even that comes with the lowest confidence of the set (47%) and recommends Under 2.5 goals rather than the Roma moneyline.

Consensus Analysis

The models converge on three critical themes:

1. Roma's catastrophic away form: The Giallorossi have 0 wins in their last 7 away Serie A matches (7 losses in last 10 on the road). More strikingly, Roma's last 7 away games have all produced under 1.5 total goals with zero Both Teams To Score. This isn't a blip — it's a structural pattern.

2. Rome's injury crisis is severe: Paulo Dybala (returning from 90 days out after meniscus surgery), Artem Dovbyk (21 goals, out), Lorenzo Pellegrini (captain, out), and Manu Koné (out) leave Gasperini without his creative spine. Donyell Malen (10 goals in 13 league games since January) leads the line alone. As GPT-5.4 puts it: "Roma are missing too much attacking structure — chance creation between the lines, set-piece quality, and penalty-box presence."

3. Bologna's historical edge at home vs Roma: Bologna are unbeaten in their last 5 home meetings with Roma (2 wins, 3 draws), including a 2-1 Europa League win at the Dall'Ara just last month. Kimi K2.5 notes that "the 2-1 Europa League win here last month is fresh tactical intelligence" for Vincenzo Italiano's side.

Where models disagree: Claude Opus 4.6 highlights that Dybala, Wesley, and Koné returning — even if not fully fit — fundamentally changes Roma's squad profile compared to their recent away losses. However, the consensus view (led by ScoreGPT, Grok 4.20, and GPT-5.4) is that a Dybala who hasn't played in 3 months and the continued absence of Dovbyk and Pellegrini still leave Roma toothless on the road.

Value Detection

Significant value detected. The market has installed Roma as slight favorites (bet365: Home 3.1, Draw 3.2, Away 2.4), implying ~41.7% away win probability. But the AI models tell a different story:

• GPT-5.4 assigns Roma just a 33% win probability (vs market 41.7%)
• ScoreGPT consensus estimates ~70% probability that Bologna avoid defeat (implied market probability for Home/Draw DC at 1.57: ~63.7%)
• Grok 4.20 puts its probability for Bologna not losing at ~70% versus the market's ~63.7%

That's a 6+ percentage point gap — a meaningful divergence. Four of five base models independently flagged the same inefficiency: the market is anchoring to Roma's season-long league position and badge reputation rather than their current squad reality. The double chance (Home Win or Draw) at 1.57 with bet365 is the clearest value play.

Grok 4.20, which leads all models with a 15.14% 30-day ROI and a 49.7% bet win rate, specifically calls this out: "Markets appear anchored to season-long standings and reputation rather than current realities."

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Bologna vs Roma?

The betting market has Roma as slight favorites at 2.40 (41.7% implied probability), but the AI models disagree. Four of six models back Bologna to avoid defeat, with ScoreGPT's consensus prediction of a 1-1 draw. GPT-5.4 assigns Bologna a 36% win probability versus Roma's 33%, making this essentially a pick'em with a home lean.

What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Roma?

Bologna are unbeaten in their last 5 home meetings with Roma across all competitions (2 wins, 3 draws). The sides met twice in this season's Europa League — Bologna advanced 5-4 on aggregate (3-3 in Rome, 2-1 in Bologna). Roma won the league fixture 1-0 back in August 2025. Under 2.5 goals has hit in 7 of the last 10 Bologna-Roma meetings.

Which AI model has the best accuracy for Serie A predictions?

Over the last 30 days, Claude Opus 4.6 leads result accuracy at 49.4% across 160 predictions, followed by Grok 4.20 at 48.4%. For bettors, GPT-5.4 has the best bet win rate at 53.1% with a 9.64% ROI, while Grok 4.20 boasts the highest ROI at 15.14% on a 49.7% win rate. ScoreGPT's consensus model sits at 44.6% result accuracy with a 2.27% ROI over 168 predictions.

Disclaimer

Predictions by ScoreGPT using 6 independent AI models. For informational and entertainment purposes only. Download ScoreGPT free on iOS.