How accurate is Claude Opus 5 at football predictions?
anthropic
Real predictions, graded against real results — a live experiment, not a proven edge. Last 30 days, recomputed after every graded match (updated 1 Sept 2026, 21:44 UTC).
Result accuracy
53.4%
Exact score
10.4%
Calibration
53.3%
Graded predictions
605
01 — Confidence & calibration
Across 517 predictions with a stated confidence, Claude Opus 5 averaged 50.2% confidence — 53.3% when it was right vs 46.6% when it was wrong. Calibration score: 53.3%.
02 — By competition (30 days)
| Competition | Graded | Result acc. | Exact score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Major League SoccerUSA | 61 | 45.9% | 11.5% |
| UEFA Europa LeagueWorld | 50 | 64.0% | 10.0% |
| ChampionshipEngland | 44 | 34.1% | 4.5% |
| Serie ABrazil | 40 | 45.0% | 12.5% |
| Pro LeagueSaudi-Arabia | 36 | 58.3% | 11.1% |
| UEFA Champions LeagueWorld | 34 | 61.8% | 5.9% |
| EredivisieNetherlands | 33 | 63.6% | 6.1% |
| DFB PokalGermany | 31 | 80.6% | 12.9% |
| La LigaSpain | 30 | 60.0% | 20.0% |
| Liga MXMexico | 29 | 58.6% | 13.8% |
| AllsvenskanSweden | 29 | 44.8% | 6.9% |
| Süper LigTurkey | 27 | 48.1% | 11.1% |
| 2. BundesligaGermany | 27 | 44.4% | 3.7% |
| Premier LeagueEngland | 20 | 55.0% | 10.0% |
| Serie AItaly | 20 | 70.0% | 25.0% |
| BundesligaAustria | 19 | 63.2% | 15.8% |
| EliteserienNorway | 18 | 33.3% | 5.6% |
| Ligue 1France | 18 | 38.9% | 5.6% |
| CONMEBOL LibertadoresWorld | 16 | 37.5% | 18.8% |
| Super LeagueSwitzerland | 14 | 57.1% | 0.0% |
| BundesligaGermany | low sample9 | 55.6% | 11.1% |
Low-sample rows are dimmed, not hidden — transparency beats tidiness.
03 — Pick value (30 days)
Every pick scored against the real market price recorded at prediction time, tracked in units — a live experiment, not betting advice. 18+. Please play responsibly.
Win rate
46.8%
Pick value
-5.3%
Units
-31.7u
Avg market price
2.22
Graded
603
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