How accurate is GPT-5.6 at football predictions?
openai
Real predictions, graded against real results — a live experiment, not a proven edge. Last 30 days, recomputed after every graded match (updated 1 Sept 2026, 21:44 UTC).
Result accuracy
51.7%
Exact score
10.1%
Calibration
53.5%
Graded predictions
592
01 — Confidence & calibration
Across 510 predictions with a stated confidence, GPT-5.6 averaged 49.7% confidence — 53.2% when it was right vs 46.2% when it was wrong. Calibration score: 53.5%.
02 — By competition (30 days)
| Competition | Graded | Result acc. | Exact score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Major League SoccerUSA | 61 | 42.6% | 16.4% |
| UEFA Europa LeagueWorld | 48 | 66.7% | 10.4% |
| ChampionshipEngland | 44 | 38.6% | 4.5% |
| Serie ABrazil | 40 | 40.0% | 7.5% |
| Pro LeagueSaudi-Arabia | 35 | 54.3% | 8.6% |
| EredivisieNetherlands | 33 | 60.6% | 9.1% |
| DFB PokalGermany | 31 | 80.6% | 19.4% |
| La LigaSpain | 30 | 60.0% | 16.7% |
| AllsvenskanSweden | 29 | 41.4% | 3.4% |
| 2. BundesligaGermany | 27 | 44.4% | 7.4% |
| Liga MXMexico | 27 | 51.9% | 3.7% |
| Süper LigTurkey | 27 | 40.7% | 7.4% |
| UEFA Champions LeagueWorld | 26 | 53.8% | 3.8% |
| Premier LeagueEngland | 20 | 55.0% | 15.0% |
| Serie AItaly | 20 | 70.0% | 20.0% |
| BundesligaAustria | 19 | 68.4% | 10.5% |
| Ligue 1France | 18 | 38.9% | 5.6% |
| EliteserienNorway | 18 | 38.9% | 11.1% |
| CONMEBOL LibertadoresWorld | 16 | 31.3% | 12.5% |
| Super LeagueSwitzerland | 14 | 50.0% | 7.1% |
| BundesligaGermany | low sample9 | 66.7% | 11.1% |
Low-sample rows are dimmed, not hidden — transparency beats tidiness.
03 — Pick value (30 days)
Every pick scored against the real market price recorded at prediction time, tracked in units — a live experiment, not betting advice. 18+. Please play responsibly.
Win rate
42.0%
Pick value
-8.3%
Units
-49.1u
Avg market price
2.50
Graded
590
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