How accurate is Grok 4.6 at football predictions?
xai
Real predictions, graded against real results — a live experiment, not a proven edge. Last 30 days, recomputed after every graded match (updated 1 Sept 2026, 21:44 UTC).
Result accuracy
52.5%
Exact score
10.1%
Calibration
53.4%
Graded predictions
577
01 — Confidence & calibration
Across 508 predictions with a stated confidence, Grok 4.6 averaged 49.6% confidence — 52.8% when it was right vs 46.1% when it was wrong. Calibration score: 53.4%.
02 — By competition (30 days)
| Competition | Graded | Result acc. | Exact score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Major League SoccerUSA | 59 | 47.5% | 18.6% |
| ChampionshipEngland | 44 | 29.5% | 4.5% |
| Serie ABrazil | 40 | 35.0% | 5.0% |
| UEFA Europa LeagueWorld | 39 | 64.1% | 7.7% |
| UEFA Champions LeagueWorld | 34 | 58.8% | 5.9% |
| EredivisieNetherlands | 32 | 65.6% | 12.5% |
| DFB PokalGermany | 31 | 80.6% | 12.9% |
| Pro LeagueSaudi-Arabia | 30 | 60.0% | 3.3% |
| La LigaSpain | 30 | 63.3% | 20.0% |
| Liga MXMexico | 28 | 53.6% | 7.1% |
| AllsvenskanSweden | 28 | 42.9% | 7.1% |
| Süper LigTurkey | 26 | 42.3% | 3.8% |
| 2. BundesligaGermany | 25 | 48.0% | 4.0% |
| Premier LeagueEngland | 20 | 50.0% | 15.0% |
| Serie AItaly | 20 | 65.0% | 35.0% |
| BundesligaAustria | 18 | 55.6% | 5.6% |
| Ligue 1France | 18 | 55.6% | 0.0% |
| EliteserienNorway | 17 | 41.2% | 5.9% |
| CONMEBOL LibertadoresWorld | 15 | 40.0% | 26.7% |
| Super LeagueSwitzerland | 14 | 57.1% | 7.1% |
| BundesligaGermany | low sample9 | 66.7% | 0.0% |
Low-sample rows are dimmed, not hidden — transparency beats tidiness.
03 — Pick value (30 days)
Every pick scored against the real market price recorded at prediction time, tracked in units — a live experiment, not betting advice. 18+. Please play responsibly.
Win rate
51.5%
Pick value
-3.5%
Units
-19.9u
Avg market price
2.06
Graded
575
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