How accurate is Grok 4.5 at football predictions?
xai
Real predictions, graded against real results — a live experiment, not a proven edge. Last 30 days, recomputed after every graded match (updated 20 Jul 2026, 22:37 UTC).
Result accuracy
63.6%
Exact score
13.6%
Calibration
52.8%
Graded predictions
88
01 — Confidence & calibration
Across 88 predictions with a stated confidence, Grok 4.5 averaged 52.7% confidence — 54.7% when it was right vs 49.1% when it was wrong. Calibration score: 52.8%.
02 — By competition (30 days)
| Competition | Graded | Result acc. | Exact score |
|---|---|---|---|
| World CupWorld | 70 | 67.1% | 12.9% |
| Liga MXMexico | low sample8 | 25.0% | 12.5% |
| Serie ABrazil | low sample5 | 80.0% | 40.0% |
| Major League SoccerUSA | low sample5 | 60.0% | 0.0% |
Low-sample rows are dimmed, not hidden — transparency beats tidiness.
03 — Betting experiment (30 days)
1 virtual unit per pick, tracked in units — a live experiment, not betting advice. 18+.
Win rate
61.4%
ROI
+30.9%
P/L
+27.2u
Avg odds
2.26
Bets
88
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