How accurate is Top Picks at football predictions?
meta
Real predictions, graded against real results — a live experiment, not a proven edge. Last 30 days, recomputed after every graded match (updated 17 Aug 2026, 06:41 UTC).
Result accuracy
40.4%
Exact score
5.8%
Calibration
—
Graded predictions
52
01 — Confidence & calibration
Top Picks does not report per-pick confidence, so calibration is not measured for this model.
02 — By competition (30 days)
| Competition | Graded | Result acc. | Exact score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Major League SoccerUSA | 12 | 66.7% | 0.0% |
| Liga MXMexico | low sample8 | 50.0% | 0.0% |
| Serie ABrazil | low sample8 | 37.5% | 12.5% |
| UEFA Champions LeagueWorld | low sample6 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| UEFA Europa LeagueWorld | low sample4 | 50.0% | 0.0% |
| 2. BundesligaGermany | low sample4 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| EredivisieNetherlands | low sample3 | 33.3% | 33.3% |
| AllsvenskanSweden | low sample2 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| World CupWorld | low sample2 | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| EliteserienNorway | low sample1 | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| Pro LeagueSaudi-Arabia | low sample1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| BundesligaAustria | low sample1 | 100.0% | 0.0% |
Low-sample rows are dimmed, not hidden — transparency beats tidiness.
03 — Betting experiment (30 days)
1 virtual unit per pick, tracked in units — a live experiment, not betting advice. 18+.
Win rate
37.7%
ROI
-32.4%
P/L
-17.2u
Avg odds
1.90
Bets
53
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