How accurate is Claude Opus 5 at football predictions?

anthropic

Football · all covered leagues

Real predictions, graded against real results — a live experiment, not a proven edge. Last 30 days, recomputed after every graded match (updated 17 Sept 2026, 18:41 UTC).

Result accuracy

52.2%

Exact score

9.8%

Calibration

53.9%

Graded predictions

806

01 — Confidence & calibration

Across 806 predictions with a stated confidence, Claude Opus 5 averaged 50.2% confidence — 54.0% when it was right vs 46.1% when it was wrong. Calibration score: 53.9%.

02 — By competition (30 days)

Competition	Graded	Result acc.	Exact score
Major League SoccerUSA	88	40.9%	8.0%
ChampionshipEngland	71	43.7%	9.9%
Pro LeagueSaudi-Arabia	54	55.6%	11.1%
La LigaSpain	52	48.1%	11.5%
Serie ABrazil	43	53.5%	14.0%
Serie AItaly	40	67.5%	20.0%
Premier LeagueEngland	40	45.0%	7.5%
Süper LigTurkey	36	50.0%	8.3%
Ligue 1France	36	38.9%	8.3%
EredivisieNetherlands	36	55.6%	0.0%
UEFA Europa LeagueWorld	35	65.7%	11.4%
Liga MXMexico	33	54.5%	3.0%
AllsvenskanSweden	33	48.5%	15.2%
UEFA Champions LeagueWorld	32	68.8%	9.4%
DFB PokalGermany	32	81.3%	15.6%
Super LeagueSwitzerland	30	46.7%	6.7%
2. BundesligaGermany	27	44.4%	7.4%
BundesligaGermany	27	55.6%	3.7%
EliteserienNorway	24	50.0%	4.2%
BundesligaAustria	18	50.0%	5.6%
CONMEBOL LibertadoresWorld	16	56.3%	25.0%
CAF Champions LeagueWorld	low sample3	100.0%	33.3%

Low-sample rows are dimmed, not hidden — transparency beats tidiness.

03 — Pick value (30 days)

Every pick scored against the real market price recorded at prediction time, tracked in units — a live experiment, not betting advice. 18+. Please play responsibly.

Win rate

52.2%

Pick value

-5.4%

Units

-50.1u

Avg market price

1.98

Graded

933

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