How accurate is GLM-5.3 at football predictions?
zai
Football · all covered leagues
Real predictions, graded against real results — a live experiment, not a proven edge. Last 30 days, recomputed after every graded match (updated 6 Sept 2026, 12:44 UTC).
Result accuracy
51.4%
Exact score
9.4%
Calibration
53.5%
Graded predictions
679
01 — Confidence & calibration
Across 589 predictions with a stated confidence, GLM-5.3 averaged 51.5% confidence — 55.0% when it was right vs 47.9% when it was wrong. Calibration score: 53.5%.
02 — By competition (30 days)
| Competition | Graded | Result acc. | Exact score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Major League SoccerUSA | 74 | 45.9% | 9.5% |
| ChampionshipEngland | 58 | 37.9% | 8.6% |
| Serie ABrazil | 44 | 38.6% | 4.5% |
| Pro LeagueSaudi-Arabia | 43 | 55.8% | 9.3% |
| UEFA Europa LeagueWorld | 37 | 59.5% | 2.7% |
| EredivisieNetherlands | 37 | 64.9% | 8.1% |
| La LigaSpain | 35 | 51.4% | 14.3% |
| 2. BundesligaGermany | 33 | 42.4% | 3.0% |
| DFB PokalGermany | 32 | 81.3% | 15.6% |
| AllsvenskanSweden | 31 | 54.8% | 16.1% |
| Liga MXMexico | 30 | 50.0% | 13.3% |
| Süper LigTurkey | 30 | 40.0% | 10.0% |
| Premier LeagueEngland | 27 | 44.4% | 7.4% |
| UEFA Champions LeagueWorld | 24 | 58.3% | 4.2% |
| Ligue 1France | 24 | 41.7% | 8.3% |
| Serie AItaly | 24 | 70.8% | 20.8% |
| Super LeagueSwitzerland | 22 | 50.0% | 9.1% |
| EliteserienNorway | 20 | 55.0% | 15.0% |
| BundesligaAustria | 19 | 57.9% | 5.3% |
| CONMEBOL LibertadoresWorld | 16 | 37.5% | 18.8% |
| BundesligaGermany | 16 | 56.3% | 0.0% |
| CAF Champions LeagueWorld | low sample3 | 100.0% | 0.0% |
Low-sample rows are dimmed, not hidden — transparency beats tidiness.
03 — Pick value (30 days)
Every pick scored against the real market price recorded at prediction time, tracked in units — a live experiment, not betting advice. 18+. Please play responsibly.
Win rate
48.6%
Pick value
-1.3%
Units
-8.8u
Avg market price
2.24
Graded
673
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