How accurate is GPT-5.6 at football predictions?
openai
Football · all covered leagues
Real predictions, graded against real results — a live experiment, not a proven edge. Last 30 days, recomputed after every graded match (updated 5 Sept 2026, 03:44 UTC).
Result accuracy
51.9%
Exact score
10.5%
Calibration
53.7%
Graded predictions
628
01 — Confidence & calibration
Across 543 predictions with a stated confidence, GPT-5.6 averaged 50.2% confidence — 53.7% when it was right vs 46.3% when it was wrong. Calibration score: 53.7%.
02 — By competition (30 days)
| Competition | Graded | Result acc. | Exact score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Major League SoccerUSA | 62 | 41.9% | 16.1% |
| ChampionshipEngland | 48 | 37.5% | 6.3% |
| UEFA Europa LeagueWorld | 47 | 66.0% | 10.6% |
| Serie ABrazil | 41 | 41.5% | 9.8% |
| Pro LeagueSaudi-Arabia | 41 | 58.5% | 7.3% |
| EredivisieNetherlands | 34 | 58.8% | 8.8% |
| DFB PokalGermany | 32 | 81.3% | 18.8% |
| La LigaSpain | 32 | 56.3% | 15.6% |
| AllsvenskanSweden | 30 | 43.3% | 6.7% |
| 2. BundesligaGermany | 29 | 41.4% | 6.9% |
| Süper LigTurkey | 28 | 42.9% | 7.1% |
| Liga MXMexico | 27 | 51.9% | 3.7% |
| UEFA Champions LeagueWorld | 24 | 50.0% | 4.2% |
| BundesligaAustria | 21 | 66.7% | 9.5% |
| Premier LeagueEngland | 21 | 57.1% | 14.3% |
| Ligue 1France | 21 | 42.9% | 4.8% |
| Serie AItaly | 21 | 71.4% | 19.0% |
| EliteserienNorway | 21 | 42.9% | 14.3% |
| Super LeagueSwitzerland | 19 | 47.4% | 10.5% |
| CONMEBOL LibertadoresWorld | 16 | 31.3% | 12.5% |
| BundesligaGermany | 10 | 70.0% | 10.0% |
| CAF Champions LeagueWorld | low sample3 | 100.0% | 33.3% |
Low-sample rows are dimmed, not hidden — transparency beats tidiness.
03 — Pick value (30 days)
Every pick scored against the real market price recorded at prediction time, tracked in units — a live experiment, not betting advice. 18+. Please play responsibly.
Win rate
43.0%
Pick value
-6.8%
Units
-42.6u
Avg market price
2.50
Graded
624
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