How accurate is Grok 4.6 at football predictions?
xai
Real predictions, graded against real results — a live experiment, not a proven edge. Last 30 days, recomputed after every graded match (updated 17 Aug 2026, 06:41 UTC).
Result accuracy
46.9%
Exact score
8.0%
Calibration
53.1%
Graded predictions
286
01 — Confidence & calibration
Across 170 predictions with a stated confidence, Grok 4.6 averaged 49.5% confidence — 52.9% when it was right vs 46.8% when it was wrong. Calibration score: 53.1%.
02 — By competition (30 days)
| Competition | Graded | Result acc. | Exact score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Major League SoccerUSA | 61 | 52.5% | 11.5% |
| Serie ABrazil | 42 | 33.3% | 4.8% |
| UEFA Champions LeagueWorld | 33 | 51.5% | 12.1% |
| Liga MXMexico | 27 | 37.0% | 3.7% |
| UEFA Europa LeagueWorld | 24 | 62.5% | 4.2% |
| EredivisieNetherlands | 17 | 64.7% | 17.6% |
| 2. BundesligaGermany | 16 | 37.5% | 6.3% |
| AllsvenskanSweden | 12 | 41.7% | 0.0% |
| ChampionshipEngland | 11 | 27.3% | 9.1% |
| EliteserienNorway | low sample9 | 44.4% | 11.1% |
| BundesligaAustria | low sample8 | 62.5% | 12.5% |
| Süper LigTurkey | low sample7 | 57.1% | 14.3% |
| CONMEBOL LibertadoresWorld | low sample5 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| La LigaSpain | low sample4 | 50.0% | 0.0% |
| Pro LeagueSaudi-Arabia | low sample4 | 50.0% | 0.0% |
| Super LeagueSwitzerland | low sample4 | 75.0% | 0.0% |
| World CupWorld | low sample2 | 50.0% | 0.0% |
Low-sample rows are dimmed, not hidden — transparency beats tidiness.
03 — Betting experiment (30 days)
1 virtual unit per pick, tracked in units — a live experiment, not betting advice. 18+.
Win rate
49.3%
ROI
-7.0%
P/L
-20.0u
Avg odds
2.02
Bets
288
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