How accurate is Kimi K3 at football predictions?
moonshot
Real predictions, graded against real results — a live experiment, not a proven edge. Last 30 days, recomputed after every graded match (updated 1 Sept 2026, 21:44 UTC).
Result accuracy
51.8%
Exact score
8.7%
Calibration
53.6%
Graded predictions
519
01 — Confidence & calibration
Across 453 predictions with a stated confidence, Kimi K3 averaged 51.7% confidence — 55.2% when it was right vs 48.0% when it was wrong. Calibration score: 53.6%.
02 — By competition (30 days)
| Competition | Graded | Result acc. | Exact score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Major League SoccerUSA | 49 | 49.0% | 14.3% |
| UEFA Europa LeagueWorld | 42 | 57.1% | 4.8% |
| ChampionshipEngland | 42 | 40.5% | 4.8% |
| Serie ABrazil | 36 | 41.7% | 5.6% |
| Pro LeagueSaudi-Arabia | 32 | 56.3% | 0.0% |
| UEFA Champions LeagueWorld | 31 | 51.6% | 3.2% |
| DFB PokalGermany | 27 | 77.8% | 14.8% |
| EredivisieNetherlands | 27 | 63.0% | 7.4% |
| AllsvenskanSweden | 27 | 48.1% | 3.7% |
| Süper LigTurkey | 26 | 42.3% | 3.8% |
| La LigaSpain | 25 | 60.0% | 20.0% |
| Liga MXMexico | 24 | 58.3% | 8.3% |
| 2. BundesligaGermany | 23 | 43.5% | 4.3% |
| Serie AItaly | 17 | 82.4% | 35.3% |
| CONMEBOL LibertadoresWorld | 16 | 31.3% | 25.0% |
| BundesligaAustria | 15 | 60.0% | 6.7% |
| Premier LeagueEngland | 15 | 46.7% | 0.0% |
| Ligue 1France | 15 | 20.0% | 0.0% |
| EliteserienNorway | 12 | 50.0% | 25.0% |
| Super LeagueSwitzerland | 11 | 63.6% | 9.1% |
| BundesligaGermany | low sample7 | 42.9% | 0.0% |
Low-sample rows are dimmed, not hidden — transparency beats tidiness.
03 — Pick value (30 days)
Every pick scored against the real market price recorded at prediction time, tracked in units — a live experiment, not betting advice. 18+. Please play responsibly.
Win rate
48.7%
Pick value
-0.9%
Units
-4.8u
Avg market price
2.29
Graded
517
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