How accurate is Kimi K3 at football predictions?
moonshot
Football · all covered leagues
Real predictions, graded against real results — a live experiment, not a proven edge. Last 30 days, recomputed after every graded match (updated 3 Sept 2026, 21:45 UTC).
Result accuracy
52.2%
Exact score
9.5%
Calibration
53.5%
Graded predictions
529
01 — Confidence & calibration
Across 462 predictions with a stated confidence, Kimi K3 averaged 52.0% confidence — 55.3% when it was right vs 48.3% when it was wrong. Calibration score: 53.5%.
02 — By competition (30 days)
| Competition | Graded | Result acc. | Exact score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Major League SoccerUSA | 49 | 49.0% | 14.3% |
| ChampionshipEngland | 46 | 39.1% | 6.5% |
| UEFA Europa LeagueWorld | 42 | 57.1% | 4.8% |
| Serie ABrazil | 37 | 43.2% | 8.1% |
| Pro LeagueSaudi-Arabia | 35 | 57.1% | 2.9% |
| DFB PokalGermany | 28 | 78.6% | 14.3% |
| AllsvenskanSweden | 28 | 50.0% | 7.1% |
| EredivisieNetherlands | 27 | 63.0% | 7.4% |
| La LigaSpain | 26 | 57.7% | 19.2% |
| Süper LigTurkey | 26 | 42.3% | 3.8% |
| UEFA Champions LeagueWorld | 25 | 60.0% | 0.0% |
| 2. BundesligaGermany | 23 | 43.5% | 4.3% |
| Liga MXMexico | 22 | 54.5% | 9.1% |
| BundesligaAustria | 17 | 58.8% | 5.9% |
| Serie AItaly | 17 | 82.4% | 35.3% |
| CONMEBOL LibertadoresWorld | 16 | 31.3% | 25.0% |
| Ligue 1France | 16 | 25.0% | 6.3% |
| Premier LeagueEngland | 15 | 46.7% | 0.0% |
| Super LeagueSwitzerland | 15 | 60.0% | 13.3% |
| EliteserienNorway | 12 | 50.0% | 25.0% |
| BundesligaGermany | low sample7 | 42.9% | 0.0% |
Low-sample rows are dimmed, not hidden — transparency beats tidiness.
03 — Pick value (30 days)
Every pick scored against the real market price recorded at prediction time, tracked in units — a live experiment, not betting advice. 18+. Please play responsibly.
Win rate
48.4%
Pick value
-1.5%
Units
-8.1u
Avg market price
2.29
Graded
527
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