How accurate is Kimi K3 at football predictions?
moonshot
Real predictions, graded against real results — a live experiment, not a proven edge. Last 30 days, recomputed after every graded match (updated 20 Jul 2026, 22:37 UTC).
Result accuracy
53.8%
Exact score
10.0%
Calibration
53.8%
Graded predictions
80
01 — Confidence & calibration
Across 80 predictions with a stated confidence, Kimi K3 averaged 50.1% confidence — 53.6% when it was right vs 46.1% when it was wrong. Calibration score: 53.8%.
02 — By competition (30 days)
| Competition | Graded | Result acc. | Exact score |
|---|---|---|---|
| World CupWorld | 65 | 58.5% | 12.3% |
| Liga MXMexico | low sample7 | 14.3% | 0.0% |
| Serie ABrazil | low sample4 | 75.0% | 0.0% |
| Major League SoccerUSA | low sample4 | 25.0% | 0.0% |
Low-sample rows are dimmed, not hidden — transparency beats tidiness.
03 — Betting experiment (30 days)
1 virtual unit per pick, tracked in units — a live experiment, not betting advice. 18+.
Win rate
46.3%
ROI
-7.2%
P/L
-5.8u
Avg odds
2.25
Bets
80
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