How accurate is ScoreGPT at football predictions?
meta
Real predictions, graded against real results — a live experiment, not a proven edge. Last 30 days, recomputed after every graded match (updated 17 Aug 2026, 06:41 UTC).
Result accuracy
47.8%
Exact score
8.7%
Calibration
52.7%
Graded predictions
312
01 — Confidence & calibration
Across 172 predictions with a stated confidence, ScoreGPT averaged 47.1% confidence — 50.1% when it was right vs 44.7% when it was wrong. Calibration score: 52.7%.
02 — By competition (30 days)
| Competition | Graded | Result acc. | Exact score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Major League SoccerUSA | 61 | 49.2% | 11.5% |
| Serie ABrazil | 42 | 33.3% | 4.8% |
| UEFA Europa LeagueWorld | 35 | 57.1% | 5.7% |
| UEFA Champions LeagueWorld | 34 | 52.9% | 11.8% |
| Liga MXMexico | 28 | 39.3% | 3.6% |
| 2. BundesligaGermany | 18 | 38.9% | 11.1% |
| EredivisieNetherlands | 18 | 61.1% | 16.7% |
| AllsvenskanSweden | 13 | 53.8% | 0.0% |
| ChampionshipEngland | 11 | 36.4% | 0.0% |
| EliteserienNorway | 10 | 50.0% | 20.0% |
| Pro LeagueSaudi-Arabia | low sample9 | 66.7% | 0.0% |
| BundesligaAustria | low sample8 | 62.5% | 25.0% |
| Süper LigTurkey | low sample8 | 50.0% | 12.5% |
| CONMEBOL LibertadoresWorld | low sample7 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Super LeagueSwitzerland | low sample4 | 75.0% | 0.0% |
| La LigaSpain | low sample4 | 75.0% | 0.0% |
| World CupWorld | low sample2 | 50.0% | 50.0% |
Low-sample rows are dimmed, not hidden — transparency beats tidiness.
03 — Betting experiment (30 days)
1 virtual unit per pick, tracked in units — a live experiment, not betting advice. 18+.
Win rate
44.1%
ROI
-4.6%
P/L
-14.4u
Avg odds
2.33
Bets
313
← Full model leaderboard · how grading works · which AI is best? · compare prediction tools