Illinois 19–42 Ohio State: AI predicted 15–37 ✓

The consensus: a clear talent gap in Columbus

All five models land on the same side — Ohio State wins comfortably — and the reasons they converge are structural rather than narrative. The Buckeyes are 2-1 with a 115-6 aggregate across two home blowouts (Ball State, Kent State) and a one-point road loss at Texas that reads more as proof of elite quality than a warning sign. Illinois arrives 2-1 with a profile that flatters: wins over UAB and Southern Illinois, a home loss to Duke in which the Illini defense surrendered 147 rushing yards and five receptions to a single opposing running back. That last data point is the most predictive fact in the whole package — Illinois' rebuilt defense has already shown it can be gashed by a balanced offense, and Ohio State's receiver/tight end/backfield depth (Jeremiah Smith, Brandon Inniss, Nate Roberts) is precisely the kind of stress that Duke exploited.

Where the experts disagree — and how I resolved it

The genuine disagreements are all about margin and mechanism, not winner:

• Illinois' offensive viability. GPT-5.6 makes the best counter-case: Katin Houser's quick release (only two sacks allowed through three games) and Collin Dixon's volume (25 catches, 367 yards, 7 TDs) give Illinois a real path to two or three sustained scoring drives, keeping the game respectable into halftime. Grok 4.6 and Kimi K3 are more pessimistic, citing offensive-line attrition and the QB transition from Altmyer. I side closer to GPT-5.6 here: pocket-bound quarterbacks with fast releases historically avoid catastrophe even against elite fronts, and Ohio State is likely to concede some yards once the lead is established. That's why I land on Illinois 17 rather than 13 — a touchdown drive early and another score against reserves or a soft second-half coverage shell.
• Ohio State's finishing. Ryan Day himself flagged a 36.4% third-down rate and 12 touchdowns from 17 red-zone trips. Claude Opus 5 and GPT-5.6 both argue this caps the Buckeyes well below their 50-point home average. I reject the 50-point blowout scenario and settle at 38: a dominant but not perfect offensive day, consistent with the consensus cluster (34-38 points).
• The letdown/look-ahead risk. Claude Opus 5 raises the sharpest coaching-level concern: a flat noon kickoff after the Texas heartbreaker, with Iowa on deck. But Kimi K3's rebuttal is stronger — Day's post-loss response record and the Big Ten opener context remove most of the flat-spot risk. The Texas game showed the floor: even a sub-par Ohio State performance against elite opposition produced 23 points on the road. Illinois is not Texas.