North Carolina vs UConn prediction: 4 of 4 AI models back North Carolina

How this one sets up

North Carolina arrives in East Hartford at 4-4, off a 38-35 home loss to No. 1 Miami in which Billy Edwards Jr. was as clean as he has been all year: 28-of-34 for 341 yards and four touchdowns with no interceptions. That followed a 31-30 overtime loss to Syracuse. The Tar Heels’ two ACC wins — 24-20 at Duke and 21-17 at Pitt — were both one-score road games. They are not a team that separates.

UConn is also 4-4 in Jason Candle’s first year, but the profile is different. The Huskies score 34.4 points a game and gain 439.6 yards, 26th in FBS, with a real run game: Cyncir Bowers has 571 yards and seven touchdowns, and Kalieb Osborne has added seven rushing scores to 1,857 passing yards, 14 touchdowns and only two interceptions. The defense is the problem. Against power-conference opponents they have been giving up about 40 points. They just lost 35-26 at Air Force after the Falcons ran for 366 yards, and they needed overtime to lose 42-41 to Syracuse at home.

What actually decides it

The non-obvious hinge is not Belichick’s return to New England. It is Edwards against the worst pass defense North Carolina has seen, colliding with a Tar Heel defense that cannot get off the field. Syracuse went for it on fourth down seven times and converted four. Miami converted 8 of 13 on third and fourth downs. Osborne will run. Bowers will get volume. UNC’s rush defense allows 153 yards a game and has not faced many designed quarterback runs.