South Korea 3–0 Ecuador: AI predicted 1–0 ✓

Synthesis: a low-event friendly that tilts narrowly to the hosts

The panel's strongest area of agreement is not the winner but the shape of the match, and it is worth leading with that because it constrains everything else. Given that shared read, the realistic scoreline range is 0-0, 1-0, 1-1 or 0-1 — and the question becomes which side is more likely to nick the decisive goal.

Where the panel split, and how it resolves

That is a genuine structural argument, and it is why the draw probability stays high in the synthesis. But it is also the least specific argument — it applies symmetrically to both teams and explains a stalemate without explaining why one side should be favoured.

The four models backing Korea all converge on the same asymmetry, and it is a more concrete one: Ecuador's preparation and availability are materially worse than Korea's for this specific fixture. Grok 4.6 and GPT-5.6 supply the sharpest version — Ecuador are missing Caicedo, Hincapié and Ordóñez through injury, have lost Valencia to international retirement, and several players only arrived at camp days before kickoff under a brand-new coach in Gallardo. Korea, by contrast, have their established core (Son, Kim Min-jae, Lee Kang-in, Hwang In-beom) available, a longer camp, and a coach in Moreno who has already declared a simple 4-4-2 rather than attempting an overhaul. Kimi K3 and Claude Opus 5 add the travel and motivation asymmetry: a South American squad assembling from Europe and Liga MX into a 14-time-zone shift for a midweek friendly is a classic underperformance profile, while Korea's new regime makes this an audition match with places on the line in front of a home crowd.