Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş prediction: 4 of 5 AI models back Beşiktaş

Synthesis

I think the lower figure is right. The models agree on the main facts, so the question is how much weight each one deserves.

Where the experts agree

• Beşiktaş's split is extreme. They have won 5 of 5 at home and only 1 of 4 away. On the road they have scored 4 and conceded 7, including a 0-2 loss at Trabzonspor and a 2-3 loss at Amed.
• Kasımpaşa are hard to beat at home. They are unbeaten there with 1 win and 3 draws. They also arrive on a good run: a 4-1 win over Samsunspor, a 1-0 win at Eyüpspor and a 3-1 cup win over Çorluspor on 29 October.
• Beşiktaş's creative group is thin. Kökçü and Miretti are out, Rashica is out and Černý is doubtful. Kasımpaşa are also missing Çörekçi, Frimpong, Mouanga and Diabaté, and Ben Ouanes is doubtful.

Where they disagree and how I resolved it

• Draw (DeepSeek) against away win (the other four). DeepSeek's case rests on Vlahović being goalless without Kökçü and on the home side being unbeaten. That is real, but it treats a draw-heavy record as if it were dominance. Beşiktaş still have Trossard, Ndidi, Olaitan and Vlahović. They also won 2-0 at home against Başakşehir while missing Kökçü, with both goals coming late, so they can still produce goals. I keep the away win as the lean but with a large draw share, which the panel numbers already reflect.
• Rest. The feed's claim that Kasımpaşa had eight days off is wrong, because of the cup tie on 29 October. That removes a small edge from the hosts. It is not decisive, because rotation was likely.
• Goals. Several others expect a slow, compact match with a 0-1 or 1-2 shape. The evidence is split, and Kasımpaşa's home games have been low scoring.