Dallas Cowboys vs Houston Texans prediction: 2 of 2 AI models back Houston Texans

The setup

Both teams have started badly. Houston is 0-3. It lost 31-36 to Buffalo and 6-20 to Cincinnati at home, then 17-19 at Indianapolis. Dallas is 1-2 after losing 31-34 to Baltimore in Rio de Janeiro on a 56-yard field goal as time expired. Bet365 makes Houston the favourite at 1.64 against 2.30 for Dallas, which works out to about 58/42 once the market's margin is removed. That matches the roughly field-goal spread at other books. The total is 47.5.

What decides it: a strong Dallas offense against a Houston defense missing its linebackers

• Dallas's offense is good and its defense is bad. Through three weeks the Cowboys rank about 4th in EPA per play and 7th in success rate on offense. Dak Prescott has been sacked only three times. On defense they rank last in EPA per play and success rate and allow 6.0 yards per play. They are also missing CB Cobie Durant and LB DeMarvion Overshown, although newly acquired CB Joey Porter Jr. looks set to make his debut.
• Houston's linebackers are badly depleted. Azeez Al-Shaair, the Pro Bowl linebacker who calls the defensive signals, is out. E.J. Speed is out for the season and Henry To'oTo'o is on injured reserve. S M.J. Stewart is out, and DEs Clowney and Hall are questionable. Houston still has an elite pass rush in Anderson and Hunter, but a backup-level second level is exposed against Dallas's short and intermediate passing to Ferguson, Lamb and Pickens. That makes it more likely Dallas scores in the mid-20s.
• Houston's offense gets Nico Collins back. Stroud has been sacked more than all but two quarterbacks, and the run game averages only 84.7 yards a game (30th). Even so, Collins is fully cleared, and Dallas's run and pass defenses are among the league's worst. This is the softest matchup Houston's offense has had so far.

Travel and the spot

The detail that matters most to me is Dallas's travel. The Cowboys played Sunday night in Rio, flew home overnight, and now play a 1 p.m. ET road game six days later. That is effectively a short week with a long-haul flight on top. Fatigue usually shows late in games and on defense. That helps a desperate Houston team at home and makes a late Texans scoring drive more likely.