Jacksonville Jaguars vs Cincinnati Bengals prediction: 2 of 2 AI models back Cincinnati Bengals

Game forecast

Cincinnati gets a narrow home win in a game that is more controlled than the 50.5-point total suggests. Through three games, Burrow is at 70.9% completions with 743 yards, six touchdowns and one interception. With Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins available, Cincinnati can keep the game on Burrow’s quick-game and intermediate-route terms rather than repeatedly testing Jacksonville’s outstanding front.

The decisive matchup is Cincinnati’s four-man pass rush against Trevor Lawrence’s intermediate-heavy passing game. Jacksonville is fifth in offensive success rate at 49.7% and Lawrence has been excellent, with seven touchdowns, a 107.8 rating and a league-leading 37% of his attempts traveling 10-to-20 air yards. But he has also been pressured on 34.1% of dropbacks. Cincinnati is generating pressure at a 39.7% rate—fifth in the league—while blitzing only 15.4%, the NFL’s lowest rate. That matters because it lets the Bengals keep enough coverage bodies on Parker Washington and Jakobi Meyers while still making Lawrence work from compressed pockets. Dexter Lawrence II and Jonathan Allen being active after rest management is especially important to that plan.

Jacksonville’s defense is the strongest argument against Cincinnati. The Jaguars have allowed an NFL-low 12.0 points per game, have not permitted a 75-yard rusher in 20 consecutive games, and bring Travon Walker and Josh Hines-Allen against a Bengals offense missing receivers Colbie Young and Andrei Iosivas. But the path to holding Burrow down is narrower than the raw points-allowed ranking implies. Jacksonville has allowed 235.7 passing yards per game, ninth-most in the league, and its pressure has been merely middle-of-the-pack despite a 29.6% blitz rate. Burrow’s 2025 passer rating against the blitz was 115.8, and Amarius Mims has allowed pressure on only 5.1% of his one-on-one pass-block snaps this season. If Jacksonville has to bring extra rushers to disrupt Burrow, Chase, Higgins and Mike Gesicki have the matchup advantage behind it.