New England Patriots 10–13 Seattle Seahawks: AI predicted 19–24 ✓

Unanimous on the winner, divided on the margin

All five experts land on the same side: Seattle wins, with projected scores of 23-20, 24-20, 24-17, 24-20 and 24-17 — a tight cluster around a 4-to-7-point home margin in a game nobody projects to reach 45 points. Brown, Vera-Tucker and the interior line, and Seattle's decimated safety room) are genuinely live upset vectors.

Resolving the key disagreements

How big is Seattle's edge, really?

GPT-5.6 (55%) and GLM-5.3 (62%) both argued the market overrates Seattle, while Grok 4.6 saw enough Week 1-specific edge (Patriots C Ben Brown ruled out, Henderson's ankle, cross-country Wednesday travel) to like the cover. Kimi K3 and Claude Opus 5 essentially said the market has it right. The decisive facts tilt slightly toward Seattle but with real attenuation:

• Macdonald's defense vs. Maye is the fulcrum. Seattle held Maye to -0.44 EPA/dropback with 52.8% pressure in Super Bowl LX, largely without blitzing. That schematic edge survives roster turnover on the defensive interior (Williams, Murphy, Reed). But New England spent the offseason directly answering it — a rebuilt interior and a true WR1 in A.J. Brown who can win even when coverage is sound.
• Seattle's safety room is the one lever that flips the game. Okada (hamstring, DNP) and Emmanwori (limited) leave Macdonald's disguise-heavy scheme dependent on a rookie and a converted cornerback. If the post-snap rotation becomes readable, Maye's off-structure playmaking is exactly the trait that punishes it.
• Seattle's offense is the biggest Week 1 unknown. A first-time coordinator (Fleury), a rookie first-round back (Price) replacing Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker, and Charbonnet on PUP. Multiple experts flagged that this is where a 28-point offense regresses toward field goals.