How accurate is GLM-5.2 at football predictions?
zai
Real predictions, graded against real results — a live experiment, not a proven edge. Last 30 days, recomputed after every graded match (updated 17 Aug 2026, 06:41 UTC).
Result accuracy
49.3%
Exact score
9.2%
Calibration
53.5%
Graded predictions
306
01 — Confidence & calibration
Across 172 predictions with a stated confidence, GLM-5.2 averaged 50.8% confidence — 54.5% when it was right vs 47.6% when it was wrong. Calibration score: 53.5%.
02 — By competition (30 days)
| Competition | Graded | Result acc. | Exact score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Major League SoccerUSA | 61 | 55.7% | 11.5% |
| Serie ABrazil | 42 | 38.1% | 11.9% |
| UEFA Europa LeagueWorld | 35 | 54.3% | 2.9% |
| UEFA Champions LeagueWorld | 33 | 51.5% | 15.2% |
| Liga MXMexico | 28 | 35.7% | 3.6% |
| 2. BundesligaGermany | 18 | 44.4% | 5.6% |
| EredivisieNetherlands | 18 | 66.7% | 11.1% |
| AllsvenskanSweden | 12 | 58.3% | 0.0% |
| ChampionshipEngland | 10 | 30.0% | 0.0% |
| BundesligaAustria | low sample8 | 62.5% | 12.5% |
| Süper LigTurkey | low sample8 | 37.5% | 12.5% |
| EliteserienNorway | low sample8 | 50.0% | 12.5% |
| Pro LeagueSaudi-Arabia | low sample8 | 62.5% | 25.0% |
| CONMEBOL LibertadoresWorld | low sample7 | 28.6% | 14.3% |
| Super LeagueSwitzerland | low sample4 | 75.0% | 0.0% |
| La LigaSpain | low sample4 | 75.0% | 0.0% |
| World CupWorld | low sample2 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Low-sample rows are dimmed, not hidden — transparency beats tidiness.
03 — Betting experiment (30 days)
1 virtual unit per pick, tracked in units — a live experiment, not betting advice. 18+.
Win rate
48.2%
ROI
+0.3%
P/L
+1.1u
Avg odds
2.24
Bets
305
← Full model leaderboard · how grading works · which AI is best? · compare prediction tools